betonliamcasey

Category: Online marketing

  • EGR OP ED: Will ‘Stutter’ be Peter Jackson’s next blockbuster?

    @betonliamcasey

    (NOTE: This Op Ed was first published in EGR Intel. I’ve put interesting links & other opinions in from people, at the bottom of this piece).

    (I’m currently available for consulting or interesting work / jobs / projects – focused on Marketing, engagement, structures & culture & general business performance).

    “Deeds will no be less valiant, because they are unpraised.” JRR Tolkien. The Lord of the Rings.

    I loved Peter Jackson’s early work. The scale of the Lord of the Rings was truly epic – but is a Flutter / The Stars Group – a blockbuster too far? Or will US box-office be the new, new thing?

    This is the deal that puts the rest of the industry on the back foot.  The headlines we’re all used to seeing in terms of industry mega deals can summed up by “bigger is better & scale trumps all…”. But IS bigger better? And what happens to culture? I spoke to mid-senior people in both organisations and the general reaction was big picture positive, but followed with a biiiig sigh and observations around “more of the same battles to the death for people & teams.”

    There are some areas that I think are really interesting here.

    DOES SCALE & REACH SUPPORT POSITIVE CULTURE? The merger of (TSG & Flutter) cultures will be both a) fascinating and b) something that will drag on the culture for the next 2 years. Both companies have been there & done that (in terms of mergers) – but it’s the foot-soldiers / middle management that will both bear the brunt of the cuts and have to struggle through whilst “synergies” get negotiated. High level costs & targets will already be known (in terms of synergies / 140M) – but (I know from experience) that Steering Groups will be kicked off / egos will surface & Game of Thrones will have nothing on internal meetings over the next 12 months. Flutter is the boss here. Dublin is now the head office. Dublin has tended to be more of an historical (Full Tilt related) outlier for TSG, and they only introduced a site CEO this year. Scale & reach seems to be the new paradigm for the online gambling industry butthere is a big (unanswered) question – can positive culture or habits be scaled? Particularly in an industry that has struggled with negative newsflow + lots of M&A + uncertainty over the last few years.

    WHO MATTERS IN M&A? NOT THE END-USER: Speaking of Culture, IF “Culture =’s Brand” then this new organisation will be…diffuse. The reality is that 99% of consumers of Stutter brands will have no idea of any corporate change – or won’t care. This is a bigger news story in Ireland, due to Paddy Power’s brand heritage there – than it is in any other territory. The overall brand portfolio now stretches across Paddy Power, Betfair, Adjarabet, Pokerstars, Skybet, Full Tilt, BetEazy, FanDuel, Foxbet – as well as various sub-brands that sit within verticals in the brands. The best brands that I’ve worked on & with are aligned around a common purpose and mission to do XXX for the customer.

    The sheer scale, weight, technical & budget challenges (and overall integration) means that brand alignment & resource allocation will be a power game as to who can get what, based on their ability to navigate the organisational power structures in a way that puts their brand needs highest. My own experience is that when people are a) concerned for their jobs b) having to compete for shared resources and c) having to navigate new relationships and comms structures – that the focus gets taken off the customer. Only time will tell here – but you feel that there are opportunities for more agile, more aligned gambling brands to deliver greater customer focus (and results) in the short to medium term.

    RAFI WILL KILL IT AS COO: I first met Rafi when he was COO of Playtech. He was always viewed as the guy that would give you a straight answer, wouldn’t fuck around – and then deliver what he said he would. He knows gambling & the industry inside out, and there has always been a general feeling that if you were going to pick an industry COO – that he’d be #1.

    This is notin opposition to him being CEO of a large public firm – but a case of Rafi being most comfortable being down in the absolute detail of the days to day, and not having to be the “BIG VISION, BIG MISSION…” sprinkler of fairy dust on a large organisation. Richard Flint is a great example of someone who combined the ability to inspire (teams) internally, and have enough charisma and slickness to put an acceptable face on an industry that is struggling with reputational issues. My gut feeling is that Rafi will be more comfortable with an inward VS outward facing role. He’s one of the good ones. I don’t know Peter Jackson – but he’s already got a board (eg: Gary McCann) that has ‘been there/done that’ in terms of long term growth and debt management.

    I’m fascinated to see how Marketing gets apportioned out on a Group basis. Flutter moved to MD’s that were brand & territory focused. TSG’s (marketing structure) approach has been more vertically focused – both in terms of product & where the customer sits in the lifecycle. There has been a move from a general online POV, to break down the CMO role into complementary, but more technically focused areas. A Group CMO announcement? I wouldn’t be too sure about that.

    MARGIN MATTERS. WILL POKER MATTER? TSG’s debt weight has been a killer. TSG has consistently delivered some of the best margins in the industry, but over the last few years hasn’t been able to touch it – due to the requirement around  positive cashflow. The converse of this is that TSG’s marketing spend has been the lowest of its (industry) peers – as a % of its online revenue. The theory is that less drag of debt, deeper pockets (budgets) and rationalised Marketing overhead (people & partners) will allow an increase in the % of spend VS revenue – that can help drive top line revenues. However – it’s never as simple as this. I know Poker (for example), has tended to be at the bottom of the list of priorities for Flutter – as general category growth has tended to be focused on the Sports & Casino verticals. ‘Stars has always taken the lead in terms of category-widening (for Poker) – but my gut-feeling is that the Group focus may not allow this (for Poker) – and that x-sell will now be #1, 2 & 3 in terms of Poker focus.

    This probably creates even more of an opportunity for Partypoker (& GVC) in terms of building on the real authenticity that it’s built up in the Poker space over the 18 months or so.  Party’s challenge here – is to maintain Poker authenticity, whilst building more holistic and seamless Poker-driven gambling experiences  – for the more “recreational” type of player. Stars Rewards is a beast at doing this – very interested to see if their model and player experience with Stars Rewards gets used on a wider Stutter group basis.

    THE TERRITORY OPPORTUNITY: I think that this is where this deal gets most interesting. Industry people tend to forget that online sports betting is still a) nascent in many territories and b) has tended to be behind online poker in terms of (early) online adoption. Pokerstars was a truly global operator, before Paddy Power (for example) was of any significant size. If you look at the US as a territory – Poker has been the more “acceptable” face of online – and sportsbetting is only catching up. If you look at the territories below – I’d have a belief that Poker as an entry point – is going to be far easier to gain an (initial) toehold and expand from there. It’s where Flutter are probably most looking to growth – outside of the pure US story.

    THE US IS WHAT MATTERS. Fox Sports + Free To Play. Fanduel + Poker. A Pokerstars legacy that goes back to the early ‘Noughties. Even Full Tilt as a secondary brand? Boots on the ground already in key markets. An Exchange in New Jersey. US fantasy sports marketing experts as part of the Management team. There is very little not to like about where this positions Stutter in terms of the overall US opportunity.

    I’m familiar with the people from TSG that are over there. (Less so with the Flutter team). They are some of the smartest guys in the room & highly motivated to succeed. BUT – there is a question now, as part of an even bigger organisation that has an updated vision & mission – as to whether there will be organisational challenges that will slow up what they want to do. Decisions that have already been made in terms of budgets & resource allocations will be picked over again. Flutter will want to have some of Peter Jackson’s men up close & personal with everything that’s going on. Trust will have to be built up – at the same time that a 10 figure marketing spend is marching out the door in the pursuit of market share / land grab.

    There are still some outstanding questions over who owns what IP, that relates to sportsbetting business procesess (eg: cashout) due to how the USPTO treats IP versus the EU. Firms are circling that one, and it could prove expensive. Positive newsflow about the US will the petrol that will drive the engine of the share price here. It’ll be one to watch that’s for sure.

    SPORTBETTING PLATFORM FIGHT TO THE DEATH: Openbet. Skybet. Betstars. Betfair. Migrations. Integrations. Trading teams. Margin. Trying to see the wood for the trees in terms of technology / market fit – is as much of a political game, as it is in terms of the best technology and capability winning. I know that if was Skybet – I’d be concerned that my expertise was complementary to a core Paddy one. I know that the Trading overhead (in terms of headcount) at TSG. was punching well above its weight in terms of markets / scale per trader. Their challenge was market / platform fit due to TSG historically being a Poker business. Stutter have the luxury of choice, but that brings hard decisions around the big picture. Shoe-horning US sports and the required differences in exotics etc – is not an overnight job & that’ll be the focus in terms of core platform market development for the long term. If you have a “one territory, horse-racing focus” your horizons are…limited.

    FINALLY – the industry is a state of flux. Mega deals have become more the norm than not. If it’s a mega deal to simply acquire tech or skillsets (a la Uber, a la Google or Facebook), it makes sense – as those deals increase capabilities that serve the customer. The mega deals in the gambling industry are driven by “synergies, reduced marketing costs because we can scale more efficiently & greater brand access to territories we don’t currently serve…” – and the reality is that – whilst the drivers are real =====- the clear outcomes as a result, unproven, at scale.

    For example, performance marketing is not binary. Just because you own more brands, and have a smaller Marketing dept(s) doesn’t mean that your acquisition costs will go down. You are still competing against your own & competitor brands. Your (corporate) scale doesn’t mean anything to your end-users other than a greater ability to deliver hygiene factors around security and safety.

    New management + revised territory marketing plans, based on new priorities + decisions around technology + integrations + internal politics + lack of clarity around future structures + the challenge of owned or licensed IP (in the US) + responsible gambling focus + regulatory pressure – all at bigger scale – do not suddenly become easier problems to solve, just because you are the biggest. Unfortunately – creating scale, scales your challenges too.

    I’m looking forward to watching how Peter Jackson’s next epic unfolds. It’ll definitely be big box office – but will it be…good?

    I’m available for full-time work or consulting – details here.

    **********************************************************************************

    Other good articles & resources that are linked to this deal:

    Here is the Flutter-Entertainment-plc-and-The-Stars-Group-Inc – corporate-doc that gives an internal >> external rationale of the deal.

    Here is the investor presentation from Flutter – here.

    Here is the link to TSG’s last investor roadshow and set of strategic priorities – here.

    @brettsmiley breaks down greater specifics on Foxbet and Fanduel & the US opportunity – here.

    @gamblinglamb (Alun Bowden) gives his expert analyst take on his four pillars of risk – here.

    @DustinGouker looks at what it means for everyone else in the US – here.

    Here is where I break down the US IP piece that relates to Cashout – here.

  • Ten betting & gaming industry predictions for the next 3+ years.

    I wrote a post nearly 5 years ago that gave some predictions around some of the areas where there would be growth in the betting & gaming industry.

    The summary from 5 years ago?

    • Operators would need to focus on real-time delivery of a data-based customer experience.
    • That there would be a huge focus on Operators focusing on the addition of more & more markets.
    • That “branded” content would be key to the growth in the egaming space.
    • That there would a struggle to harness Social properly.

    I’ll let you, the reader decide if those predictions were on the money or not…comments welcome.

    So – what does the future hold?

    It’d be too easy to predict further super-mergers, or a loosening up of the regulatory regime in the USA, instead I’m going to focus on some more esoteric and/or short / medium & long term outcomes I predict.

    Short-term (12 months):

    • William Hill & Amaya deal to huff & puff for a relatively short period – but ultimately a deal that doesn’t get done. (Too much grey market exposure for WH. Kentucky lawsuit still hanging over Amaya. Technology integration being a barrier.)
    • PokerStars to announce that they are moving to NYX / OpenBet as their core sportsbetting platform.
    • Fortuna Entertainment Group to gobble up market share on the back of their Playtech deal. (Only if they have the in-house capability & experience to execute though…).

    Medium Term (12 – 36 months):

    • Trading floors (and direct trading of sports volume) to be wound down by many online gambling operators and customer volume to be run through managed trading solutions from 3rd parties. {Trading is a) volatile and material to bottom line results b) expensive & requires highly paid trading floors and c) pricing is getting commoditised as Operators compete with a race to the bottom around “Best Price Guaranteed”.} Offerings like 3ET to disrupt the market. (Ed note: I have done some consultancy work for 3ET.)
    • Skybet to IPO. Their recent results are a clear indication of that. And they are owned by a private equity firm (CVC) that will want to cash out.
    • Matchbook.com to emerge from “mid-tier” Exchange status and start to challenge market leaders via industry leading tech & customer experience (Ed note: I have done some consultancy work for Matchbook).
    • Companies that understand the importance of full vertical integration in the online gambling space will start to dominate across regional markets. (Vertical integration = own the traffic via owning affiliates, own the brands that you send the traffic to, own the software & IP that sits behind the brand, own the payment processing.) Optimizer Invest are probably the best example here.
    • Big national brands that have attempted to build regional profit centres around their core brand – will potentially move to more local facing brands. Paddy Power’s experience with Sportsbet is an excellent example. Betsson Group’s multi-brand strategy will pay off in the long term too.

    Long Term (36 months+):

    • Blockchain to directly contribute to regulation in the online gambling space. (Who needs regulators when you’ve got a globally recognised standard of financial record? There’s a good piece that explains it here.)
    • AI & chatbots to start doing much of the heavy-lifting around basic customer interactions in the betting & gaming space – this reducing pretty large cost-bases (and OPEX) from companies. It’ll take at least this long for current technology to transition to these capabilities.

    What do you think about these predictions? On track? Way off beam? What am I missing?

    If you need to know more about me – you can find out here.

  • Google Correlate: Your own trend data is your friend?

    Quick post this – I just came across this last night, so I thought I’d put down some thoughts.

    Google’s newest lab rat, is Google Correlate and it complements Google Trends in the sense that it allows you to upload your own data series and look for corresponding data trends.

    Google’s mission statement for this is: “Google Correlate finds search patterns which correspond with real-world trends.”

    What’s really interesting is that it works like Google Trends in reverse. With Google Trends, you type in a query and get back a series of its frequency over time. But what Google Correlate allows is to enter a data series (the target) and get back queries whose frequency follows a similar pattern.

    What does this mean in real world terms?

    My understanding of this, is that it allows you to upload a series of data, let’s say for example how may people visited your website (and you know that it’s during say a slower period of the year), and they came to your site looking for “widgets”.

    You could take the search term “widgets” and the data series (of visits), upload the info to Google Correlate – and it would spit out other related data streams that follow the same series. This means that (in search terms) you could possibly target online categories that follow a similar online cycle – and further optimise (or spread) your search budget.

    It effectively cuts out all the complicated data analysis required to try and find similar search patterns, but based on your own data. This is where it differs from Google Trends in that all the data is coming from Google in Google Trends – but with Google Correlate you can upload your own data to be queried against what’s already stored by Google. (It’s pretty chunky in that it goes back to 2003, too).

    The maths behind the algorithm etc is pretty complicated – the number wizards out there can check it out here.

    There’s a whitepaper on it here – and the Google FAQ’s are here.

    I haven’t played around with it enough to see of it’s much more than a number-crunching exercise in terms of Google showcasing their ability to generate relevant results, based on your data – but I’m guessing that if it proves to work that it’ll (no surprise) get online marketers spending more online dollars as they try and exploit other data (search) trends that mimic their own.

    In other news, the www.igamingsupershow.com was busy, and it was good to meet so many old faces that had made it to Dublin. I’ll wrap up some thoughts on that, and #bluemonday – when I get time to draw breath.

  • How the hell does Amazon control 30% of all ecommerce in the US?

    It was only when I read this fantastic article in Techcrunch, that I realised the actual “under the radar” scale of Amazon’s eccommerce business. Sure, they just sell books and CD’s right? Nope.

    And that’s a $34 billion a year in revenue nope.

    That’s like if one company was responsible for 15% if Ireland’s GDP. God knows we could do with it.

    How have they done it? (And this is what’s really interesting to me from an online point of view.)

    They taken some basic online concepts and built scale, on analytics, retention and product experience.

    The global consulting company global consultincompany faberNovel has identified the keys to Amazon’s success as 1) the Internet imposes no limits on how much Amazon can sell; 2) its control of customer accounts and loyalty, and 3) and a growing ecosystem that is helping it cement its place in the world of digital goods as well.

    And this is from a compnay that lost $3billion dollars betwen 1995 and 2003.

    The turnaround is nothing short of an amazing model for how successful, customer focused ecommerce businesses should be turned around and run.

    Their web services business alone effectively runs transactional platforms for massively scaled businesses like Zynga, Netflix, Reddit, Etsy, Dropbox and many more.

    Yet many people think that they just sell books, Cd’s and DVD’s.

    If you’re an internet marketer or in the ecommerce business – you could do worse than reading the great Techcruch article on them here.

  • Is social gaming the future of online gambling?

    I’m still waiting to see how the US shakes out with its ongoing struggle to work out what it wants to do with online gambling. It’ll happen.

    My take is that poker will be first and it’ll regulated on a state by state basis. It’ll be for US companies, and as each state regulates, the company will require infrastructure in each state that it gets a licence in. That’s going to put barriers up for companies that are undercapitalised or who can’t get some type of top-end deal with a regulated network provider. See ipoker.it or pokerstars.fr for what I’m talking about here.

    Online casino games will be next, following a similar path, with sportsbetting being a very distant last. Could be a long time before the NFL / NBA / etc are happy to see it happen.

    However, whatever the DOJ in the US thinks, there’s huge appetite for online games, that have gambling elements attached to them.

    The massive continued growth of Zynga et al, is showing that the social gaming experience is becoming part of the standard online experience for the average Joe. Social gaming companies are big fans of publicising growth metrics and stats, primarily because many are marching on VC money, with IPO being the ultimate aim. The better the numbers, the better the bottom line. It’s not quite the same as many of the online gambling behemoths that are still privately held – so hard & fast numbers are difficult to pin down there.

    Personally, I think that the low barrier to entry and trial for social games combined with their natural brand associations with social networks (and Facebook in particular), are introducing a casual segment of the market to a type of low cost competitive gambling.

    One of the drivers of gamblers in particular, is the belief that they’ve got a more informed or more valid opinion than you, or the house. Why else would you stake your hard-earned cash otherwise? Social gaming is pushing the commoditisation of the gaming transaction. I think this will ultimately lower some of the barriers that stand in the way of online gambling brands, in particular for the US, when regulation happens.

    If you want to get some decent flavour of what’s happening in the social space, there are some good sources worth checking out – and you can make up your own mind about whether social gaming could be the future of online gambling.

    It’s either that, or does someone want to buy my 5 million Zynga Poker credits?

    Here are some good sources to form your own opinion on what Social Gaming’s impact for online gambling may be:

    http://www.insidesocialgames.com/

    http://socialtimes.com/category/social-games

    http://blog.games.com/

    It’s also worth keeping an eye on what Bruce Everiss is talking about – he predated social gaming, but as the guy who took both Imagine and Codemasters to being #1 in the market, he knows his games marketing – check out his blog at: http://www.bruceongames.com/

  • Canadian media does in-depth profile on elusive Pokerstars founder

    The Canadian broadsheet “The Globe and Mail” has put together a piece on the founder of Pokerstars, Isai Scheinberg. It’s not particularly in-depth, but the the fact that they’ve managed to find out much at all, shows the level of mainstream media interest in the current Poker case.

    The Globe and Mail compares the Scheinberg family to the Bronfmans, a Montreal clan (Scheinberg is variously described as Canadian or Israeli-Canadian) who famously turned U.S. Prohibition laws into a billion-dollar business.

    Some of the interesting facts included were that Isai placed 25th at a Texas Hold’em tournament at the 1996 World Series of Poker, and that he was involved with IBM, where he helped develop the Unicode standard. (Probably a great background, for the network development side of Poker, I’d say.)

    The article notes that he founded Rational Entertainment in 2001, which is effectively the company that’s responsible for the network & software development for Pokerstars.

    One thing that tends not to be mentioned in a lot of these stories is how the online poker companies should be held up as marketing icons, in the way that they’ve built solid, global brands inside a decade (some even shorter) and that their ability to manage the consumer life-cycle is virtually unsurpassed. You don’t build billion dollar businesses by sitting on your ass, that’s for sure.

    Their EPT purchase was a great move in terms of shoring up the offline poker branding market, with high-end TV production values (thanks to John Duthie), and a structure which means that they can get events into profit, even before a frame is shot. (Just take a look at the number of online EPT event qualifiers that Pokerstars run, all at a low buy-in, but their liquidity ensures biiiiig numbers.)

    The media and the US legal system may be out to get a big piece of Mr. Scheinberg and his family, but I’d give plenty of kudos to a someone who’s harnessed the power of popular culture, networks, branding and good old-fashioned chutzpah.

    Full Globe and Mail piece here.

  • My crystal ball for Facebook advertising is working well.

    World domination is ongoing, law suits are pending and one of my Facebook predictions for marketers is coming true.

    I predicted that the cost of advertising on Facebook would rise (it’s up 40% in the last year) but that click through rates would drop. Ergo, it’s not a great destination for seriously bottom line focused marketers, companies and brands. See a few of my social media predictions – here.

    The anecdotal evidence that we’ve heard and seen from partners and competitors is that the return on investment for companies looking to use it as an aquisition tool for paying customers, is one word, crap.

    We do a lot of deals with portals, ad networks and other online destinations. Conversion rates can be anything from .5% to 5% depending on whether the site that our ad is appearing on is targeted (to our segment) or untargetd (maybe just sports, but no gambling). We’ve heard of 5 figure campaigns run with response and ultimate conversion rates of less than .001%. Ouch.

    Twitter’s growth is unabated, and it seems to have beaten Facebook to the punch on click through rate – but part of that is due to the nature of the medium (of the tweet). To have any engagement, you HAVE to click through a tweet to see more in-depth content – this is primarily due to the URL shorteners out there.

    Some of the feedback that we’ve had from customers is that when they are on Facebook, they are in friend-browsing mode and even less likely than usual to engage with random marketing, however targeted. It’s a little different when they are surfing outside of a social network. They are more open to suggestion.

    There’s a good piece on it here from last year, and that was before Facebook’s prices went up. Read it here.

  • Back in the saddle of blogging. Some online gambling thoughts first.

    It’s been too long.

    Blogging about the business of internet gaming / marketing /  gambling has just felt like extra work – and god knows, I’ve got enough real work to be going on with.

    What’s happening on the day-to-day business of online gaming front for me?

    I’m overseeing 2 x casinos, 2 x poker rooms, 3 sets of fixed odds games, our overall Partner function as well as heading up our Business Development function. It means that my time gets split between current egaming partnerships, what may be future ones, general business development – and managing a team of people.

    I’m going to have to get my sh*t together and get down some thoughts on the business of online gaming and in particular, what are the industry trends and my thoughts on them.

    Social Media – Macro Trends:

    * Social media will still not be monetised properly this year by brands.

    * Advertising on Facebook will get more expensive but click through rates will drop, and marketers will still spend shed-loads of money there, for little or no return

    * Overall email engagement will continue to drop for brands looking to engage customers through that channel. There’s too much email clutter, and social networks are cutting out the commercials by allowing P2P communication.

    * Twitter will block a bunch of aggregators that are currently piggy-backing their content, put them out of business, and try to work out their own business model (it’s got to be sponsored tweets + brand pages at a premium).

    Gaming Industry – Macro Trends:
    * B2B infrastructure deals between operators (who are now taking on the role of platform partners) – what’s going to be successful?
    * Growth in regulated markets – what markets are going to open and how tough will they be to enter?
    * Poker revenues falling off a cliff (for multi-platform operators) – why? Is it terminal?
    * Super affiliates becoming Operators (particularly Poker & Bingo) – do they have a future?
    * Live Betting is THE growth area for Sportsbooks – what sports and where’s the incremental revenue?
    * The growth of financial betting platforms – do they have a future with multi-platform operators?

    One final thing. I’d be amazed if online poker doesn’t get legalised on a state by state basis within the next two years. That’s a bonanza for online marketers in the US. Gird your loins…